Predicting value and price of orphan drugs: a comparison across Europe and the US

Forecasting payer-perceived value and price of pharmaceutical products across multiple markets can be a challenge. To evaluate the potential of a value-based pricing model in predicting cost across different payer types, we performed in-depth research demonstrated in our study: “Predicting value and price of orphan drugs: a comparison across Europe and the US” presented at

price forecasting

We applied our horizon methodology; a value framework built to model payer perspectives and applied it to a value-based pricing regression model to predict cost of treatment. We explored a set of 8 orphan drugs assessed since 2015 with various indications, launch sequencing and retrospectively tested the accuracy of price prediction of burosumab across different payer archetypes (Italy, Spain and the US).

Results from the analysis demonstrated that the value framework can be applied to quantify the payer perspectives of analogues within each market. Using the value-based pricing regression model with this set of analogues, average accuracy of burosumab price prediction compared to actual price across price types was 6% in Italy and 30% in the USA; Spain had limited available analogues for the analysis. This high accuracy of price prediction validated that our horizon methodology can be used to forecast price of an orphan drug.

At GPI we are constantly researching, developing and testing to support our solutions. The research in this poster supports the methodology to GPI Horizon, our unique platform solution that provides rapid value assessment and price prediction throughout an asset’s lifecycle. GPI horizon can quantify an asset’s potential position and value across key markets, using a data-driven approach from a clinical, price, and payer perspective within the evolving market landscape.

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