GPI HORIZON, the price forecasting methodology that is transforming market access strategy

GPI HORIZON, GPI’s price forecasting and optimisation methodology, helps pharma companies continuously and transparently assess value and price for their assets, creating efficiencies and improving the quality of strategic decision-making.

By utilising GPI’s real-world, robust market access data, GPI’s HORIZON methodology begins with a detailed market landscape and value driver analysis to build an indication-specific value assessment framework. Incorporating policy considerations from each market, this framework mimics payer thinking and provides an unbiased price and value forecast in the form of a flexible scenario planning and strategy development tool.

The agile framework can be applied throughout the drug development lifecycle, from early price forecasting (pre-clinical), value assessment and optimisation (phase 1-2), through to indication prioritisation and launch sequencing (pre- and post-launch).

How HORIZON works in the real World…

Delivered through GPI’s consulting team, this data-driven asset forecast takes a 360 view of the market, the company’s asset or assets, and the best strategies for the best stages of the launch. To see how GPI HORIZON works in real-time, visit our case study which takes a look at a multi-indication launch sequence.

In this particular scenario, GPI utilised HORIZON in order to optimise the launch sequence of three different phase II/III assets across a range of (orphan) indications. This project, highlighted in our case study, saw our expert consultants leverage HORIZON to define LCM pricing strategy across key markets to support optimal ROI.

Feeling the pressure

As in most markets, there is always uncertainty with indication launch, in addition to growing pressure from a multitude of competitors. Some of the challenges HORIZON can help our clients, include:

  • Optimise the Target Product Profile (TPP) and evidence generation plan
  • Clinical goalpost setting to achieve a certain price-point
  • Model multiple possible scenarios (e.g. subpopulations) without the rigidity of primary market research
  • Enhance primary market research results with more targeted and evidence-based questions

By taking a step-by-step approach, HORIZON takes the client through from the analysis and planning stages, through to mitigation planning and strategy development.

How does HORIZON work?

In this case study, the GPI consulting team performed a value-price analysis against selected analog cases and current SOC.

The team then benchmarked regional price evolution against competitors, in potential life cycle & launch scenarios. In addition, GPI identified areas for TPP optimisation and favourable launch sequence scenarios. After the extensive research, and consulting, GPI HORIZON was used to construct proactive plan to mitigate competitors’ impact and optimise ROI.

By utilising the robust data from GPI pulse™ 2.0, the methodology first provides a market access landscape, including analog selection and analysis,​ understanding value drivers, and​ identifying price corridors​.

Our expert team of market access consultants are then able to decode payer thinking to build a  framework of value attributes which will be used to quantify the value of an asset and its analogs/comparators. This is done by assigning numerical values to each attribute and weighting each attribute by importance in each market. Once the value scores are determined for each product in the comparison, we then run a regression analysis, incorporating cost of treatment, to define the relationship between value and price. The end result is a forecasted price of the asset, backed by data. Using this model, our consultants are able to take a multi-dimensional view to optimise strategy, by aligning evidence generation with commercial viability and market access priorities​.

The business impact

The impact of a data-driven, bespoke approach is wide-ranging, whether you’re a small or large pharma company. GPI Horizon can be applied for a single asset on a project-basis, but can also be used as a framework to power customised asset price forecasting & scenario planning tools​. This allows for a complete, customized asset strategy that can:

  • Understand value drivers with validated models
  • Foster internal conversations
  • Empower evidence-based decisions
  • Align evidence generation with commercial viability
  • Remain agile as your asset develops though the drug development lifecycle

In our HORIZON case study, GPI enabled the client’s team to define engagement priorities and create a coherent, evidence-based message to socialise throughout the organisation. GPI’s toolkit was integrated with the company’s internal tools, enabling flexibility and the ongoing strengthening, and testing of business hypotheses as the products moved towards launch.

GPI HORIZON is part of GPI’s comprehensive solution market access strategy, which can be leveraged through our consulting team, or through a custom-built platform.

You can find out more about GPI HORIZON on our web page, or alternatively if you would like to know more about how GPI can maximise your market access strategy, utilising the HORIZON methodology, please get in contact.


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