Humira as a Benchmark: What GPI Data Reveals About Biosimilar Pricing and Originator Price Erosion in Europe

Introduction

In the coming years, the pharmaceutical market is expected to see a significant influx of biosimilars, as nearly 110 biologics are projected to lose exclusivity in Europe by the end of 2032. This next wave of biosimilars will likely crowd the market, prompting manufacturers to adopt innovative pricing tactics as a means of strategic differentiation. This blog compares the pricing policies shaping the frameworks of EU4 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain), the UK, and the Nordics (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden), with a particular focus on Humira’s pricing dynamics, which serve as a classic case study¹.

Biosimilar pricing dynamics in EU4, UK and Nordics^2,3

Biosimilar pricing frameworks across European markets differ significantly, shaped by each country’s regulatory structure, negotiation mechanisms, and tendering practices.

Regulated vs Free Pricing:

EU4 markets typically employ regulated pricing, ensuring biosimilars launch at a defined discount from originators (e.g., France: 30–40% below; Italy: 20–30% below). In contrast, the UK and Sweden follow free pricing, allowing greater flexibility but leading to more variable outcomes.

Tendering and Competition:

While EU4 relies on regional or hospital-level tenders, the Nordics utilise national and regional tenders, fostering stronger competition and transparency. This difference has significant implications for post-launch price erosion and market sustainability.

Notable Outliers:

Germany remains unique with its internal reference pricing and rebate contracts, while Norway’s maximum price and national negotiation model have led to some of the steepest price drops post-biosimilar entry.

Figure 1: Biosimilar pricing characteristics across EU4, UK and Nordics

Understanding these variations in national pricing systems is crucial, as they shape how individual products perform post-launch. The case of Humira provides a clear illustration of how divergent policies across Europe translate into real-world pricing outcomes.

Case study: Humira’s biosimilar pricing in EU5 vs Nordics

Humira, approved in Europe in 2003, lost patent exclusivity in 2018. The first biosimilar, Amgevita, was approved in 2017, setting the stage for one of the most competitive biosimilar launches in Europe.

Launch Pricing: EU4 and UK vs Nordics

• In EU4 and the UK, Amgevita’s list price was 10–40% lower than Humira’s (Source: GPI Pulse™ 2.0).
• In the Nordics, Amgevita’s list price was 16–56% lower than Humira’s, reflecting a more aggressive tender-driven environment (Source: GPI Pulse™ 2.0).
• Interestingly, in Denmark, Amgevita initially launched at the same price as Humira – yet following subsequent biosimilar entries, prices fell sharply likely due to intensified tendering competition (Source: GPI Pulse™ 2.0).

Post-Launch Price Erosion

• Significant list price erosion of Humira was observed only in Denmark (-37%) and Norway (-49%), while other markets maintained relatively stable list prices (Source: GPI Pulse™ 2.0).
• The absence of visible price erosion in EU4 and the UK may be attributed to confidential discounts and rebates, suggesting that net price erosion likely occurred but remains unreported due to lack of transparency.
• Amgevita’s pricing trajectory further illustrates the varied impact of local market mechanisms. In the first two years post-launch, list prices in the Nordics fell in the range of 20-40% (Finland and Denmark) (Source: GPI Pulse™ 2.0). In contrast, EU4 markets exhibited slower visible erosion, although confidential discounts suggest deeper net price competition behind the scenes. These patterns highlight how pricing frameworks not only shape initial entry strategies but also determine long-term price sustainability.

Sustaining the Biosimilar Market: Finding the Balance Between Affordability and Viability

Intensifying price competition and aggressive tendering are putting pressure on biosimilar sustainability in mature European markets. With declining margins, some manufacturers are shifting supply to higher-priced regions like the US or scaling back biosimilar R&D altogether. These market signals point to a growing need for policy recalibration – one that tempers excessive price erosion while safeguarding the long-term viability of the biosimilar ecosystem⁴.

Evidence continues to demonstrate that biosimilars deliver strong clinical and economic value. For instance, adalimumab biosimilars remain cost-effective versus newer Janus kinase inhibitors in moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis. To sustain innovation and access, policymakers could consider prioritising high-value biosimilars in treatment pathways and introducing systematic class reviews when biosimilars launch. While modest price adjustments toward willingness-to-pay thresholds may seem counterintuitive, such measures could help maintain developer participation and secure a resilient, competitive biosimilar market for the future⁴.

Outlook: Preparing for the Next Wave of Biosimilars

With over 100 biologics nearing loss of exclusivity by 2032, the pricing landscape is set to evolve further. Policymakers will need to balance:

• Transparency vs sustainability,
• Price competition vs market stability, and
• Access acceleration vs long-term manufacturer participation.

Manufacturers, on the other hand, will have to innovate, not only in pricing but also in contracting models, differentiation strategies, and stakeholder engagement, to thrive in an increasingly crowded biosimilar market.

References:

1. DrugPatentWatch (2025). Market Analysis: The Impact of Biosimilars on the Generic Drug Industry in Europe. [online] DrugPatentWatch – Transform Data into Market Domination. Available at: https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/blog/market-analysis-the-impact-of-biosimilars-on-the-generic-drug-industry-in-europe/?srsltid=AfmBOorcI8U5nvboJAmj6ZOhFZywGvUCuLmydSJT7nJxB8zGHfEIpctG [Accessed 6 Nov. 2025].
2. Yadav, V., Lee, M.K., Della Loggia, L. and Straccia, E. (2025) The Impact of Access Policies on Biosimilar Pricing in Five Major EU Markets. Inbeeo. Available at: https://inbeeo.com/2025/03/18/biosimilar-policies-and-pricing-access-europe-ispor-2024/ [Accessed 6 Nov. 2025].
3. Medicines for Europe (2025) Biosimilars Market Review 2025. Available at: https://www.medicinesforeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Biosimilars-Market-Review-2025.pdf [Accessed 6 Nov. 2025].
4. Simoens, S., Teresa Barcina Lacosta and András Inotai (2024). Learnings from cross-border biosimilar pricing policies in Europe. Expert review of pharmacoeconomics & outcomes research, [online] pp.1–4. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/14737167.2024.2334343. [Accessed 6 Nov. 2025].
5. GPI Pulse™ 2.0.